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K@01>B:0 25@=KE ?@>3=>7>2 ?>72>;O5B A45;0BL 1>;55 A>25@H5==K< C?@02;5=85, MDD5:B82=K<  ?@>5:B8@>20=85. " "#  25@LO=>2, ./. !>F8>;>38O: GB> >=0 7=05B 8 <>65B/ . /. 25@LO=>2. - .: !>F8>;>3, 2003. - 328 A. 30=153O= . . 0CG=>-B5E=8G5A:89 ?@>3@5A5 8CA:>@5=85 A>F80;L=>- 7:>=><8G5A:>3> @0728B8O : <>=>3@0D8O / . . 30=153O=. - . : :>=><8:0, 1985.-65 A. ;5E8=, -. . AA;54>20=85 A>F80;L=>-M:>=><8G5A:8E 8 A>F80;L=>-?>;8B8G5A:8E ?@>F5AA>2/ -. . ;5E8=. - 5=70: 5=7. 3>A. C=-B, 2008. - 160 A. 5ABC652-040, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>3=>78@>20=85. C@A ;5:F89 / . . 5ABC652-040.-- .: 5403>38G5A:>5 >1I5AB2> >AA88 2009. - 392 A. 6>= -.. %0=:0, 8= . #8G5@=, @BC@ 6. 09BA 87=5A ?@>3=>78@>20=85.  8;LO<A 2003, A 134 ;L<552, . /. @8:;04=0O A>F8>;>38O: G5@:8 <5B>4>;>388/ . /. ;L<552, . . 2AO==8:>2. -- 3-5 874., 8A?@. 8 4>?. -- !1.: 740B5;LAB2> !.-5B5@1C@3A:>3> 3>AC40@AB25==>3> C=825@A8B5B0, 2010. -- 296 A. C@10B>2, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / . . C@10B>2, . . C@10B>20. - >AB>2 =/: "$5=8:A", 2011. - 416 A. C:>2, .A. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85/ . . C:>2. -- 4-5 874., ?5@5@01. 8 4>?. -- .: 74-2> >A:. 3C<0=8B.-A>F80;L=. 0:045<88: $;8=B0, 2008. -- 240 A. 07<0=>20 . . 5B>48G5A:85 2>?@>AK ?@>3=>78@>20=8O A1KB0. 0@:5B8=3 2 >AA88 8 70 @C156><. ! 1/2000 >28:>2, .. 5B>4>;>38O/ . . >28:>2, . . >28:>2. - .: !-".  2010.  668 A. C78:>2, .!. C@A ;5:F89 ?> A>F80;L=>-M:>=><8G5A:><C ?@>3=>78@>20=8N / . !. C78:>2. - >AB>2 =/: >AB. 3>A. AB@>8B. C=-B. 2002. - 125 A. !0D@>=>20 .. @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5 : CG51. ?>A>185 4;O ABC4. 2KAH. CG51. 702545=89 / . . !0D@>=>20. -- 2-5 874., AB5@. -- . : 740B5;LA:89 F5=B@ :045<8O, 2008.  240 A. !>F80;L=0O @01>B0 / >4 >1I59 @540:F859 ?@>D. .. C@10B>20. !5@8O #G51=8:8, CG51=K5 ?>A>18O. - 3. >AB>2 =/: $5=8:A, 2010.- 576 A. ">I5=:>, . ". !>F8>;>38O. 1I89 :C@A / . ". ">I5=:>. - 2-5 874. - .: @><5B59; .@09B, 2004. - 511 A. $5=5=:>, ... !>F8>;>38O C?@02;5=8O : #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / ... $5=5=:>. - . : & ;LB5:A, 2009. - 236 A %>;>AB>20 . . !>F80;L=0O @01>B0: #G51=>5 ?>A>185. -- 5-5 874. -- .: 740B5;LA:>-B>@3>20O :>@?>@0F8O 0H:>2 8 ", 2007. -- 668 A Makridakis S. The Art and Science of Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting ! 2/1986, A. 17 Stutzman F. Leveraging the future of social technology / F. Stutzman.  Access mode : chimprawk.blogspot.com.  Stutzman F. Leveraging the future of social technology / F. Stutzman.  Access mode : chimprawk.blogspot.com  C@10B>2, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / . . C@10B>2, . . C@10B>20. - >AB>2 =/: "$5=8:A", 2011.  !. 29  30=153O= . . 0CG=>-B5E=8G5A:89 ?@>3@5A5 8CA:>@5=85 A>F80;L=>- 7:>=><8G5A:>3> @0728B8O : <>=>3@0D8O / . . 30=153O=. - . : :>=><8:0, 1985.-65 A.  CF52 . $. >2K9 3>@>4. !>F8>;>38G5A:89 >G5@: =0 <0B5@80;0E !818@8 /. $. CF52. -. : KA;L, 1982.-280 A.  !0D@>=>20 .. @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5 : CG51. ?>A>185 4;O ABC4. 2KAH. CG51. 702545=89 / . . !0D@>=>20. -- 2-5 874., AB5@. -- . : 740B5;LA:89 F5=B@ :045<8O, 2008.  !, 74  C@10B>2, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / . . C@10B>2, . . C@10B>20. - >AB>2 =/: "$5=8:A", 2011.  !. 34  !0D@>=>20 .. @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5 : CG51. ?>A>185 4;O ABC4. 2KAH. CG51. 702545=89 / . . !0D@>=>20. -- 2-5 874., AB5@. -- . : 740B5;LA:89 F5=B@ :045<8O, 2008.  !. 81  C@10B>2, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / . . C@10B>2, . . C@10B>20. - >AB>2 =/: "$5=8:A", 2011.  !. 37  C:>2, .A. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85/ . . C:>2. -- 4-5 874., ?5@5@01. 8 4>?. -- .: 74-2> >A:. 3C<0=8B.-A>F80;L=. 0:045<88: $;8=B0, 2008.  !. 78  !0D@>=>20 .. @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5 : CG51. ?>A>185 4;O ABC4. 2KAH. 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akridakis S. The Art and Science of Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting ! 2/1986, A. 17 Stutzman F. Leveraging the future of social technology / F. Stutzman.  Access mode : chimprawk.blogspot.com.  Stutzman F. Leveraging the future of social technology / F. Stutzman.  Access mode : chimprawk.blogspot.com  C@10B>2, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / . . C@10B>2, . . C@10B>20. - >AB>2 =/: "$5=8:A", 2011.  !. 29  30=153O= . . 0CG=>-B5E=8G5A:89 ?@>3@5A5 8CA:>@5=85 A>F80;L=>- 7:>=><8G5A:>3> @0728B8O : <>=>3@0D8O / . . 30=153O=. - . : :>=><8:0, 1985.-65 A.  CF52 . $. >2K9 3>@>4. !>F8>;>38G5A:89 >G5@: =0 <0B5@80;0E !818@8 /. $. CF52. -. : KA;L, 1982.-280 A.  !0D@>=>20 .. @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5 : CG51. ?>A>185 4;O ABC4. 2KAH. CG51. 702545=89 / . . !0D@>=>20. -- 2-5 874., AB5@. -- . : 740B5;LA:89 F5=B@ :045<8O, 2008.  !, 74  C@10B>2, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / . . C@10B>2, . . C@10B>20. - >AB>2 =/: "$5=8:A", 2011.  !. 34  !0D@>=>20 .. @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5 : CG51. ?>A>185 4;O ABC4. 2KAH. CG51. 702545=89 / . . !0D@>=>20. -- 2-5 874., AB5@. -- . : 740B5;LA:89 F5=B@ :045<8O, 2008.  !. 81  C@10B>2, .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: #G51=>5 ?>A>185 / . . C@10B>2, . . C@10B>20. - >AB>2 =/: "$5=8:A", 2011.  !. 37  C:>2, .A. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85/ . . C:>2. -- 4-5 874., ?5@5@01. 8 4>?. -- .: 74-2> >A:. 3C<0=8B.-A>F80;L=. 0:045<88: $;8=B0, 2008.  !. 78  !0D@>=>20 .. @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5 : CG51. ?>A>185 4;O ABC4. 2KAH. 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