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
2B>@ @5:><5=4C5B 2=54@8BL >?@545;5==CN ?@>3@0<<C 459AB289 ?> @0AG5BC MDD5:B82=>AB8 >B 2=54@5=8O A8AB5<K C?@02;5=8O >E@0=>9 B@C40.
B0:, AC<<0@=0O M:>=><8O A >?@545;O5BAO 4>102;5=85< 2A5E 8AB>G=8:>2, 2KG8A;ONB 70 D>@<C;>9 ( 2 . 1 ) :
A = -@ + H + A + ?, ( 3 . 1 )
345 -@ A=865=85 A515AB>8<>AB8 ( M:>=><8O) >B C<5=LH5=8O 701>;520=8O 8 B@02<0B87<0 87 70@01>B=>9 ?;0BK CA;>2=> C2>;5==KE @01>G8E;
H A=865=85 A515AB>8<>AB8 >B C<5=LH5=8O 2K?;0B ?> AB02:0< 2@54=KE ?@>D5AA89 8 >?;0BK 4>?>;=8B5;L=KE >B?CA:>2;
A A=865=85 A515AB>8<>AB8 >B C<5=LH5=8O 2K?;0B 70 1>;L=8G=K<8 ?8AL<0<8;
? A=865=85 A515AB>8<>AB8 >B C<5=LH5=8O C1KB:>2 G5@57 B5:CG5ABL :04@>2.
;O >?@545;5=8O M:>=><88 >B A=865=8O ?@>872>4AB25==>- >1CA;>2;5==>9 701>;5205<>AB8 =04> =09B8 ?@>F5=B 701>;5205<>AB8 ! ( 2 @01>G8E 4=OE) ?> >B=>H5=8N : @01>G5<C 2@5<5=8 >4=>3> @01>G53> 2 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 33. , 2KG8A;ONB 70 D>@<C;>9 ( 3 . 2 ) : :
! = * 1 0 0 / * $, ( 2 . 2 )
345 4=8 >BACBAB28O G5@57 ?@>872>4AB25==>- >1CA;>2;5==CN 701>;5205<>ABL 2 B5G5=85 3>40;
A5@54=L>A?8A:>20 G8A;5==>ABL @01>G8E;
$ ;5B=89 MDD5:B82=K9 D>=4 2@5<5=8 >4=>3> @01>G53>.
!0 = 6 7 5 7 9 * 8 * 1 0 0 / 8 0 0 0 * 1 8 1 9 = 3 , 7 2 % , 0
!1 = 6 3 2 4 0 * 8 * 1 0 0 / 8 1 0 2 * 1 8 3 5 = 3 , 4 0 % .
@8 MB>< CA;>2=>5 >A2>1>645=85 @01>G8E, 2KG8A;ONB 70 D>@<C;>9 ( 2 . 3 ) :
@ = ( 1 ( 1 0 0 - !0 ) / ( 1 0 0 - !1 ) * * 0 , 5 ( 2 . 3 )
@ = ( 1 - ( 1 0 0 - 3 , 7 2 ) / ( 1 0 0 - 3 , 4 0 ) * 8 0 0 0 * 0 , 5 = 1 3
345 !0 , !1 ?@>F5=B ?>B5@L @01>G53> 2@5<5=8 G5@57 701>;5205<>ABL : 8 ?>A;5 2=54@5=8O !# ; A5@54=5CG5B=0O G8A;5==>ABL ?5@A>=0;0 =0 ?@54?@8OB88 2 2 0 1 2 3>4C; 0 , 5 :>MDD8F85=B =5@02=><5@=>AB8 2=54@5=8O <5@>?@8OB89 ?> >E@0=5 B@C40.
@8 CA;>2=>< >A2>1>645=88 1 3 @01>G8E M:>=><8O D>=40 70@01>B=>9 ?;0BK 8 >BG8A;5=89 =0 A>F80;L=>5 AB@0E>20=85 -@ 70 AG5B ?>2KH5=8O ?@>872>48B5;L=>AB8 @01>BK, 2KG8A;ONB 70 D>@<C;>9 ( 2 . 4 ) :
-@ = @* A@* ( 1 + AA/ 1 0 0 ) = 1 3 * 8 7 5 0 * ( 1 + 0 , 1 2 ) = 1 6 0 , 0 4 BKA. @C1. ( 3 . 4 )
57C;LB0B82=>5 DC=:F8>=8@>20=85 !# 2>7<>6=>5 ;8HL ?@8 CA;>288, GB> 2A5 @01>B=8:8 1I5AB20 @0745;ONB ?>;8B8:C 2 >1;0AB8 >E@0=K B@C40. >A:>;L:C C;CGH5=8O =0G8=05BAO 8<5==> 87 G5;>25:0, 87 87<5=5=89 55 ;8G=>3> >B=>H5=8O : A>1AB25==>9 157>?0A=>AB8 8 157>?0A=>AB8 >:@C60NI8E, ?>2KH5=85 ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=>9 :><?5B5=F88, ?@0:B8G5A:8E ?@82KG5: 8 4@.
-:>=><8O 70 AG5B ?5@52>40 @01>G8E, >?;0B0 :>B>@KE >ACI5AB2;O;0AL ?> AB02:0< @01>B A 2@54=K<8 CA;>28O<8 @01>BK, 2 =>@<0;L=K5 CA;>28O, 2KG8A;ONB ?> D>@<C;5 ( 3 . 5 ) :
T i = H A * ( C i - C y ) ) ( 1 + G c c | 1 0 0 ) ? ( 3 . 5 )
345 !H A@54=OO B0@8D=0O AB02:0( G0A>20O) =0 2@54=KE 8 B@C4=KE @>1>B0E ( 2 @C1;OE) ( 2 2 , 9 0 ) ;
!= A@54=OO B0@8D=0O AB02:0 4;O @01>B A =>@<0;L=K<8 CA;>28O<8 @01>BK ( 2 @C1;OE) ( 1 5 , 3 0 ) ;
:>;8G5AB2> @01>G8E, :>B>@K5 ?5@52545=K =0 =>@<0;L=K5 CA;>28O @01>BK.
5@>?@8OB8O ?> >E@0=5 B@C40 404CB 2>7<>6=>ABL 2 2 0 1 3 3. C;CGH8BL CA;>28O @01>BK @01>B=8:0<. A;8 6 6 A =8E C;CGH8;8 CA;>28O 1;03>40@O 2=54@5=8N !# , B>:
H = 1 0 8 , 4 BKA. @C1
!C<<0@=0O M:>=><8O >B ?5@52545=8O @01>G8E 2 =>@<0;L=K5 CA;>28O B@C40 1;03>40@O <5@0<, :>B>@K5 ?@54CA<>B@5=K A8AB5<>9:
H = = 3 0 8 , 6 1 BKA. @C1.
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>6=> CB25@640BL, GB> 2=54@5=85 A8AB5<K !# O2;O5BAO ?>;>68B5;L=K< D0:B>@>< 2 45OB5;L=>AB8 ;N1>3> ?@54?@8OB8O, B0: :0: ?>72>;O5B ACI5AB25==> AM:>=><8BL A@54AB20 =0 70@01>B=>9 ?;0B5 G5@57 ?5@52545=85 @01>G8E 2 =>@<0;L=K5 CA;>28O @01>BK.
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